Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2015-16 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product, 2015-16
Posted on 31 May, 2016 6:03 pm
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2015-16 and quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2015-16, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices. Estimates at current prices are derived by estimating the implicit price deflators (IPDs) at sectoral level from the relevant price indices.
2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2011-12) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.
3. GDP growth rates for 2015-16 and Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2015-16 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given below:
|
Growth Rates of GDP |
||
|
|
Constant prices (2011-12) |
Current prices |
|
Annual 2015 -16 |
7.6 |
8.7 |
|
Q1 2015-16 (April-June) |
7.5 |
8.8 |
|
Q2 2015-16 (July-Sep) |
7.6 |
6.4 |
|
Q3 2015-16 (Oct-Dec) |
7.2 |
9.1 |
|
Q4 2015-16 (Jan-Mar) |
7.9 |
10.4 |
Estimates including growth rates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2015-16 released earlier have been revised according to the revision policy of this Ministry.
I. PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2015-16
4. The advance estimates of national income for the year 2015-16 were released on 8th February, 2016. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking, insurance and government expenditure. Early results on the performance of corporate sector for April-December 2015 which were used in the advance estimates have been revised on the basis of latest available information. The information on corporate performance as available from company finance studies of RBI is supplemented with the information available from advance filings with Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange. Revisions in first three quarter growth rates of 2015-16 are on account of the following:
- Early results on the performance of corporate sector for April-December, 2015 (based on advance filings up to 30thJanuary 2016) which were used in the advance estimates have been revised on the basis of latest available information based on filings up to 27th May 2016.
- Use of IIP data for April-March, 2015-2016 as against IIP data based on April-November, 2015 used in the advance estimates.
- Use of latest available information on Sales tax collection and State revenue expenditure.
- The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:
- Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices
Gross Domestic Product
- Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2015-16 is now estimated at `113.50 lakh crore (`113.51 lakh crore estimated earlier on 8th February, 2016), showing a growth rate of 7.6 percent (similar to 7.6 percent estimated earlier) over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2014-15 of ` 105.52 lakh crore, released on 29th January 2016.
Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices
7. Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2015-16 is now estimated at `104.27 lakh crore (as against `104.38 lakh crore estimated earlier on 8th February, 2016), showing a growth rate of 7.2 percent (as against 7.3 percent estimated earlier over the First Revised Estimates of GVA for the year 2014-15 of `97.27 lakh crore, released on 29th January 2016.
8. The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0 percent are 'financial, real estate and professional services' (10.3 percent), manufacturing (9.3 percent), ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’ (9.0 percent), and ‘mining and quarrying’ (7.4 percent). The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘construction’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services’, 'public administration, defence and other services’ is estimated to be 1.2 per cent, 3.9 per cent, 6.6 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively.
9. Industry analysis
Agriculture
9.1. The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector has shown a growth rate of 1.2 percent, as against the growth rate of 1.1 percent in the Advance estimates. The upward revision is on account of use of third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture. As per the third advance estimates, the food grain production was 252.23 million tonnes in 2015-16 which is higher than the tentative estimates of food grain production used for compiling the Advance estimates. Crops including fruits and vegetables account for 61% of GVA in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector. Around 39% of GVA of this sector is based on livestock products, forestry, fishing and aquaculture, which has registered a combined growth of around 5.0 percent.
Mining and quarrying
9.2 The ‘mining and quarrying’ sector has shown a growth rate of 7.4 percent, as against the growth rate of 6.9 percent in the Advance estimates. The upward revision is mainly on account of use of latest available private corporate results. As per the available information, private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as estimated from major listed companies at current prices was (-)0.2 percent as against (-)2.8 percent growth used in the advance estimate. The Index of Industrial Production of mining registered growth of 2.2 percent during 2015-16 as against growth rate of 2.1 percent used for compiling advance estimates. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 4.6 percent and (-)1.4 percent during 2015-16.
Manufacturing
9.3 The growth in the ‘manufacturing ’ sector is estimated at 9.3 percent as against the growth rate of 9.5 percent in the Advance estimates. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of around 69 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE was 10.0 percent at current prices during 2015-16. The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which includes individual proprietorship and partnerships and khadi & village Industries having a share of around 25 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. The IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 2.0 percent during the whole year of 2015-16, as against the growth rate of 3.9 percent used for compiling Advance Estimates. Due to this change, the Advance estimate growth of ‘manufacturing’ sector has been revised downwards to 9.3 percent.
Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services
9.4 GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from ‘Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector is estimated to grow by 6.6 percent as compared to growth of 5.9 percent in the Advance Estimate. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 5.6 per cent during April-March, 2015-16 as against the estimated growth rate of 4.6 percent used for compiling Advance Estimates.
Construction
9.5 Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 4.6 per cent and 4.3 percent, respectively, during 2015-16 as against 2.2 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively during April-December 2015. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised to 3.9 percent as against 3.7 percent in the Advance Estimates.
Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting
9.6. GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from this sector is estimated to grow by 9.0 percent as compared to growth of 9.5 percent in the Advance estimates of 2015-16. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth. As per the available monthly data on State accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 6.8 percent during 2015-16. Indicator used for measuring GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. The private corporate sector growth in the hotels and restaurant sector as estimated from available data from listed companies at current prices is 21.5 percent during April-March, 2015-16 which is lower than the 26.5 % growth used in the Advance estimates.
Among the other services sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major sea ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 11.5 percent, 4.3 percent, 7.5 per cent and 17.3 per cent respectively during April-March of 2015-16. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of (-)4.5 percent and (-)0.1 percent respectively during 2015-16.
Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services
9.7 The sector 'financial, real estate and professional services' has shown a growth rate of 10.3 per cent during 2015-16 same as projected growth in the advance estimates. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 71.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for computer related activities which is estimated from available data from listed companies at current prices is 10.1 percent during April-March, 2015-16. The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth of 9.9 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively as on 31stMarch, 2016.
Public administration and defence and other services
9.8 The sector ‘Public administration, defence and other services' has shown a growth rate of 6.6 per cent in the provisional estimates, as against the growth rate of 6.9 per cent in the advance estimates. The downward revision is mainly on account of use of updated information on State government revenue expenditure.
Gross National Income
10. The Gross National Income (GNI) at 2011-12 prices is now estimated at `112.13 lakh crore (as against `112.14 lakh crore estimated on 8th February 2016), during 2015-16, as against the previous year’s First Revised Estimate of `104.28 lakh crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 7.5 percent during 2015-16, in comparison to the growth rate of 7.3 percent in 2014-15.
Per Capita Income
11. The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2015-16 is likely to attain a level of `77435 as compared to `72,889 for the year 2014-15. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.2 percent during 2015-16, as against 5.8 percent in the previous year.
12. Price indices used as deflators
The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 3.3 per cent, (-) 1.1 per cent, 4.0 per cent and (-)2.5 percent, respectively during April-March, 2015-16. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 4.9 per cent during April-March, 2015-16.
(b) Estimates at current prices
Gross Domestic Product
13. GDP at current prices for the year 2015-16 is estimated at `135.76 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 8.7 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2014-15 of `124.88 lakh crore, released on 29th January 2016.
National Income
14. The GNI at current prices is now estimated at `134.19 lakh crore during 2015-16, as compared to `123.41 lakh crore during 2014-15, showing a rise of 8.7 percent.
Per Capita Net National Income
15. The per capita income at current prices during 2015-16 is estimated to have attained a level of `93,293 as compared to the First Revised Estimate for the year 2014-15 of `86,879 showing a rise of 7.4 percent.
II ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP, 2015-16
16. Along with the Provisional Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2011-12) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly expenditure of Central Government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
17. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `80.76 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against`71.93 lakh crore in 2014-15. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `63.01 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against`58.64 lakh crore in 2014-15. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 59.5 percent and 55.5 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.6 percent and 55.6 percent, respectively in 2014-15.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
18. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `14.39 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against `13.65 lakh crore in 2014-15. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `11.27 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against ` 11.03 lakh crore in 2014-15. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 10.6 percent and 9.9 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 10.9 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively in 2014-15.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
19. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `39.72 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against `38.44 lakh crore in 2014-15. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `35.41 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against `34.08 lakh crore in 2014-15. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 29.3 percent and 31.2 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.8 percent and 32.3 percent, respectively in 2014-15. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 1.7 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.
20. The rates of discrepancies at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 0.1 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively of the GDP, as against the corresponding rates of 0.4 percent and (-) 0.3 percent respectively in 2014-15.
21. Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures of GDP for the years 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.
III QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2015-16
(a) Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices
22. The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2015-16 is estimated at `30.12 lakh crore, as against `27.90 lakh crore in Q4 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.9 percent. GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2015-16 is estimated at `26.88 lakh crore, as against `25.03 lakh crore in Q4 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.4 percent.
23. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (2.3 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (8.6 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (9.3 percent), ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ (9.3 percent) ‘construction’ (4.5 percent), 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' (9.9 percent), 'financial, real estate and professional services' (9.1 percent), and ‘Public administration, defence and other Services' (6.4 percent).
24. According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates 2.0 percent, (-) 1.1 percent and 9.1 percent respectively, in Q4 of 2015-16, as compared to the growth rates of 0.3 percent, 3.7 percent and 3.7 percent respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2014-15. Performance of corporate sector based on available information from BSE/NSE has been taken into account for compiling quarterly estimates.
25. The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of (-) 8.4 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2015-16, as against the growth rates 3.5 percent and 2.4 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles and cargo handled at major ports, registered growth rates of 19.4 percent and 7.7 percent respectively in Q4 of 2015-16. The Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting sector have registered a growth of 9.9 percent in Q4 of 2015-16 as against 13.1 percent in Q4 of 2014-15. The sector ‘Public administration, defence and other services' has shown a growth rate of 6.4 per cent in Q4 of 2015-16 as against the growth rate of 4.1 per cent in 2014-15.
26. The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2015-16 are estimated at `16.67 lakh crore and `8.86 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP in Q4 of 2015-16 were 55.3 percent and 29.4 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 55.2 percent and 32.4 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2014-15.
(b) Estimates at current prices
27. GDP at current prices in Q4 of 2015-16 is estimated at `36.77 lakh crore, as against `33.32 lakh crore in Q4 of 2014-15, showing a growth of 10.4 percent. GVA at current basic prices in Q4 of 2015-16 is estimated at `31.27 lakh crore, as against `28.82 lakh crore in Q4 of 2014-15, showing a growth of 8.5 percent.
28. The PFCE and GFCF at current prices in Q4 of 2015-16 are estimated at `21.48 lakh crore and `9.88 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP in Q4 of 2015-16 are estimated at 58.4 percent and 26.9 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 56.4 percent and 30.1percent, respectively in Q4 of 2014-15.
29. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 4.5 per cent, (-)0.6 percent, 2.7 percent and (-)0.9 percent, respectively during Q4 of 2015-16. The WPI of minerals has declined by 27.3 percent during Q4 of 2015-16. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 5.3 per cent during Q4 of 2015-16.
30. Estimates of GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the expenditures of GDP for the four quarters of 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 5 to 8.
31. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter April-June, 2016 (Q1 of 2016-17) will be on 31.08.2016.
|
STATEMENT 1: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2015-16 (At 2011- 12 Prices) |
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|
|
|
(` crore) |
|
|
|||||
|
S. No. |
Item |
2013-14 (2ndRE(NS)) |
2014-15 (1st RE) |
2015-16 (PE) |
percentage change over previous year |
||||
|
|
2014-15 |
2015-16 |
|||||||
|
|
Domestic Product |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
1 |
GVA at basic prices |
9084369 |
9727490 |
10427191 |
7.1 |
7.2 |
|||
|
2 |
Taxes on Products including import duties |
1025799 |
1108339 |
1190986 |
8.0 |
7.5 |
|||
|
3 |
Less Subsidies on Products |
270734.2 |
283678.6 |
267929 |
4.8 |
-5.6 |
|||
|
4 |
GDP (1+2-3) |
9839434 |
10552151 |
11350249 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
|||
|
5 |
NDP |
8737681 |
9359476 |
10071784 |
7.1 |
7.6 |
|||
|
|
Final Expenditures |
|
|
|
|
||||
|
6 |
PFCE |
5520068 |
5864283 |
6301128 |
6.2 |
7.4 |
|||
|
7 |
GFCE |
977521 |
1102607 |
1126952 |
12.8 |
2.2 |
|||
|
8 |
GFCF |
3250539 |
3408251 |
3540750 |
4.9 |
3.9 |
|||
|
9 |
CIS |
162036 |
195007 |
205816 |
20.3 |
5.5 |
|||
|
10 |
VALUABLES |
150123 |
173275 |
173811 |
15.4 |
0.3 |
|||
|
11 |
Exports of goods and services |
2466632 |
2508402 |
2377742 |
1.7 |
-5.2 |
|||
|
12 |
Less Imports of goods and services |
2643368 |
2664390 |
2590793 |
0.8 |
-2.8 |
|||
|
13 |
Discrepancies |
-44117 |
-35284 |
214843 |
|
|
|||
|
14 |
GDP |
9839434 |
10552151 |
11350249 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
|||
|
|
RATES TO GDP |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
15 |
PFCE |
56.1 |
55.6 |
55.5 |
|
|
|||
|
16 |
GFCE |
9.9 |
10.4 |
9.9 |
|
|
|||
|
17 |
GFCF |
33.0 |
32.3 |
31.2 |
|
|
|||
|
18 |
CIS |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
|
|
|||
|
19 |
VALUABLES |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
|
|
|||
|
20 |
Exports of goods and services |
25.1 |
23.8 |
20.9 |
|
|
|||
|
21 |
Less Imports of goods and services |
26.9 |
25.2 |
22.8 |
|
|
|||
|
22 |
Discrepancies |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
1.9 |
|
|
|||
|
23 |
GDP |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
24 |
GNI |
9717062 |
10427701 |
11213328 |
7.3 |
7.5 |
|||
|
25 |
NNI |
8615309 |
9235026 |
9934863 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
|||
|
Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption |
|||||||||
|
26 |
Population* (in million) |
1251 |
1267 |
1283 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
27 |
Per Capita GDP |
78653 |
83285 |
88466 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
|||
|
28 |
Per Capita GNI |
77674 |
82302 |
87399 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
|||
|
29 |
Per Capita NNI |
68867 |
72889 |
77435 |
5.8 |
6.2 |
|||
|
30 |
Per Capita PFCE |
44125 |
46285 |
49112 |
4.9 |
6.1 |
|||
NS: New Series Estimates; RE: Revised Estimates; PE: Provisional Estimates
|
STATEMENT 2: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2015-16( At Current Prices) |
||||||
|
|
|
(` crore) |
|
|
||
|
S.No. |
Item |
2013-14 (2ndRE(NS)) |
2014-15 (1st RE) |
2015-16 (PE) |
percentage change over previous year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2014-15 |
2015-16 |
|
|
Domestic Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
GVA at basic prices |
10380813 |
11472409 |
12279410 |
10.5 |
7.0 |
|
2 |
Taxes on Products including import duties |
1201322 |
1350361 |
1612197 |
12.4 |
19.4 |
|
3 |
Less Subsidies on Products |
309371 |
334565 |
315522 |
8.1 |
-5.7 |
|
4 |
GDP (1+2-3) |
11272764 |
12488205 |
13576086 |
10.8 | |